2022-23 Fantasy Projection Accuracy

Fantasy-relevant accuracy for 2022-23, excluding players with fewer than 1,500 minutes. Limited to minutes, games, minutes per game, and 9-cat rates.

Summary

System MIN G MIN/G PTS/MIN REB/MIN AST/MIN STL/MIN BLK/MIN TOV/MIN 3PM/MIN FG% FT%
SPS
ESPN

Playing Time

Minutes

Everybody Missed for Minutes

Player Actual SPS ESPN
Trey Murphy III 2448
1063
(1385.2)
943
(1505.0)
Andrew Nembhard 2074
500
(1573.5)
500
(1573.5)
Keegan Murray 2382
500
(1881.7)
934
(1447.7)
Spencer Dinwiddie 2725
1587
(1138.2)
1297
(1428.3)

Individual Misses for Minutes

SPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jabari Smith Jr. 500 2451 1950.5
2 Paolo Banchero 500 2430 1929.7
3 Jaden Ivey 500 2304 1804.3
4 Jalen Williams 500 2276 1775.6
5 Bennedict Mathurin 500 2222 1722.4
6 Jamal Murray 500 2133 1633.4
7 Brook Lopez 920 2372 1452.8
8 Shaedon Sharpe 500 1779 1278.6
9 Patrick Williams 1046 2323 1277.0
10 Tari Eason 500 1767 1267.2

ESPN

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Corey Kispert 500 2093 1593.3
2 Mikal Bridges 1393 2963 1570.2
3 Grant Williams 500 2045 1544.8
4 Jalen Green 1141 2602 1461.2
5 Anthony Edwards 1433 2841 1408.5
6 KJ Martin 897 2292 1395.2
7 Nikola Vučević 1356 2746 1390.4
8 Jalen Brunson 989 2379 1389.7
9 Troy Brown Jr. 500 1860 1359.8
10 Julius Randle 1378 2737 1359.3

Games

Everybody Missed for Games

Player Actual SPS ESPN
Andrew Nembhard 75
0
(75.0)
0
(75.0)
Keegan Murray 80
0
(80.0)
33
(47.0)

Individual Misses for Games

SPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Tari Eason 0 82 82.0
2 Shaedon Sharpe 0 80 80.0
3 Jabari Smith Jr. 0 79 79.0
4 Bennedict Mathurin 0 78 78.0
5 Jalen Williams 0 75 75.0
6 Jaden Ivey 0 74 74.0
7 Walker Kessler 0 74 74.0
8 Paolo Banchero 0 72 72.0
9 Jalen Duren 0 67 67.0
10 Malaki Branham 0 66 66.0

ESPN

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jevon Carter 0 81 81.0
2 Grant Williams 0 79 79.0
3 Drew Eubanks 0 78 78.0
4 Naji Marshall 0 77 77.0
5 Troy Brown Jr. 0 76 76.0
6 Corey Kispert 0 74 74.0
7 Austin Reaves 0 64 64.0
8 Josh Green 0 60 60.0
9 Donte DiVincenzo 24 72 48.0
10 Max Strus 33 80 47.0

Rate Stats

MIN/G

Everybody Missed for MIN/G

Player Actual SPS ESPN
Joe Harris 20.6375
29.8000
(16817.0)
25.4103
(7360.9)
Quentin Grimes 29.8719
17.9456
(21372.3)
26.0000
(8112.0)
Bol Bol 21.5060
8.8434
(16278.4)
27.3939
(8934.8)
Shaedon Sharpe 22.2325
30.2426
(17536.0)
18.5789
(6414.4)
Josh Green 25.6538
15.1759
(13281.3)
30.2426
(7135.7)
Malaki Branham 23.4787
30.2426
(13347.0)
18.0811
(8291.1)

Individual Misses for MIN/G

SPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Trey Murphy III 14.9690 30.9874 34685.9
2 Tre Jones 15.3712 29.1726 23709.7
3 Anfernee Simons 24.4338 35.0106 18944.3
4 Tari Eason 30.2426 21.5515 18627.4
5 Aaron Nesmith 13.0227 24.8822 18182.6
6 Nic Claxton 20.2414 29.8771 17680.1
7 Isaac Okoro 30.0323 21.7443 16752.6
8 Walker Kessler 30.2426 23.0163 15457.7
9 Malcolm Brogdon 32.9405 26.0271 15280.6
10 Russell Westbrook 34.3565 29.1209 15061.3

ESPN

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Drew Eubanks 30.2426 20.3035 15814.9
2 Jevon Carter 30.2426 22.3673 14353.5
3 Jalen Williams 24.5641 30.3412 13039.0
4 Naji Marshall 30.2426 23.2732 12573.9
5 Kawhi Leonard 27.3077 33.6055 10923.0
6 Troy Brown Jr. 30.2426 24.4709 10821.8
7 Grant Williams 30.2426 25.8831 9010.6
8 Chris Boucher 25.1667 20.0457 7873.6
9 Gary Trent Jr. 28.3684 32.0908 7784.1
10 Immanuel Quickley 25.6410 28.9396 7621.6

PTS/MIN

Everybody Missed for PTS/MIN

Player Actual SPS ESPN
Dillon Brooks 0.4728
0.6014
(305.7)
0.5576
(192.0)
Mikal Bridges 0.5639
0.4078
(434.3)
0.4587
(306.1)
Andrew Nembhard 0.3419
0.5140
(376.7)
0.5140
(360.8)
Kawhi Leonard 0.7090
0.5140
(324.1)
0.5484
(277.4)
Damian Lillard 0.8858
0.7229
(323.1)
0.7907
(196.3)

Individual Misses for PTS/MIN

SPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Lauri Markkanen 0.4963 0.7441 541.5
2 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 0.6823 0.8837 463.6
3 Caris LeVert 0.5760 0.4009 413.0
4 Jalen Brunson 0.5074 0.6865 403.4
5 Isaiah Hartenstein 0.4617 0.2494 361.3
6 Myles Turner 0.4296 0.6098 311.5
7 Josh Hart 0.4152 0.3028 299.4
8 Tyrese Haliburton 0.4480 0.6161 298.5
9 Keldon Johnson 0.5170 0.6712 298.5
10 Julius Randle 0.5895 0.7073 296.2

ESPN

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Markelle Fultz 0.1257 0.4708 610.1
2 Troy Brown Jr. 0.5140 0.2909 418.5
3 Grant Williams 0.5140 0.3135 413.9
4 Zach LaVine 0.5798 0.6911 303.0
5 Drew Eubanks 0.5140 0.3271 299.1
6 Jevon Carter 0.5140 0.3593 283.7
7 Corey Kispert 0.5140 0.3917 260.0
8 Kevon Looney 0.4220 0.2953 251.9
9 Josh Green 0.5140 0.3547 248.1
10 Naji Marshall 0.5140 0.3895 226.6

REB/MIN

Everybody Missed for REB/MIN

Player Actual SPS ESPN
Andrew Nembhard 0.0960
0.1782
(156.9)
0.1782
(163.4)
Bobby Portis Jr. 0.3695
0.3152
(110.8)
0.3071
(119.9)
Anthony Davis 0.3686
0.2639
(211.9)
0.2955
(145.8)
Kevon Looney 0.3882
0.3192
(148.0)
0.2547
(268.1)
Rudy Gobert 0.3789
0.4313
(98.5)
0.3064
(163.0)

Individual Misses for REB/MIN

SPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Walker Kessler 0.1782 0.3640 327.6
2 Jalen Duren 0.1782 0.3563 308.3
3 Dejounte Murray 0.2320 0.1444 218.1
4 Tari Eason 0.1782 0.2807 192.6
5 Jabari Smith Jr. 0.1782 0.2322 148.4
6 Lauri Markkanen 0.1922 0.2508 148.0
7 Trey Murphy III 0.1760 0.1148 133.7
8 Bruce Brown 0.2040 0.1439 122.2
9 Bol Bol 0.1964 0.2690 119.2
10 Alperen Sengun 0.2641 0.3123 119.0

ESPN

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 CJ McCollum 0.2140 0.1238 229.9
2 Jalen Green 0.1858 0.1091 190.6
3 Markelle Fultz 0.0288 0.1316 188.9
4 Nikola Vučević 0.2721 0.3288 165.0
5 De'Aaron Fox 0.1957 0.1257 162.2
6 Corey Kispert 0.1782 0.0989 158.9
7 Jonas Valanciunas 0.3347 0.4085 152.0
8 Drew Eubanks 0.1782 0.2639 141.2
9 Domantas Sabonis 0.3081 0.3557 139.6
10 Mason Plumlee 0.2778 0.3410 136.6

AST/MIN

Everybody Missed for AST/MIN

Player Actual SPS ESPN
Bennedict Mathurin 0.0522
0.1145
(139.6)
0.1035
(117.7)
Andrew Nembhard 0.1645
0.1145
(102.5)
0.1145
(100.2)
Bam Adebayo 0.0924
0.1287
(95.8)
0.1296
(101.0)
Kyle Anderson 0.1712
0.1249
(89.6)
0.1184
(100.2)
Domantas Sabonis 0.2095
0.1598
(134.4)
0.1758
(87.5)
Killian Hayes 0.2182
0.1736
(95.1)
0.1578
(126.6)

Individual Misses for AST/MIN

SPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jabari Smith Jr. 0.1145 0.0412 180.9
2 Keegan Murray 0.1145 0.0411 175.9
3 Tyrese Haliburton 0.2192 0.3107 171.3
4 Dejounte Murray 0.2260 0.1663 162.1
5 Jamal Murray 0.1145 0.1875 154.6
6 Nikola Jokić 0.2315 0.2919 139.1
7 Walker Kessler 0.1145 0.0405 126.9
8 Jaden Ivey 0.1145 0.1679 122.0
9 Malik Monk 0.1029 0.1733 120.3
10 Jalen Duren 0.1145 0.0449 117.1

ESPN

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Markelle Fultz 0.0365 0.1918 273.3
2 Corey Kispert 0.1145 0.0416 156.1
3 OG Anunoby 0.1101 0.0549 135.5
4 Troy Brown Jr. 0.1145 0.0511 121.0
5 Pascal Siakam 0.1988 0.1565 116.5
6 Chris Boucher 0.0901 0.0190 110.7
7 Grant Williams 0.1145 0.0641 106.5
8 Trae Young 0.2514 0.2916 98.1
9 Anthony Davis 0.1272 0.0777 97.4
10 Tyus Jones 0.1632 0.2150 97.3

STL/MIN

Everybody Missed for STL/MIN

Player Actual SPS ESPN
Tari Eason 0.0543
0.0298
(45.9)
0.0668
(21.3)
Draymond Green 0.0322
0.0472
(31.0)
0.0214
(25.8)
Kawhi Leonard 0.0412
0.0298
(22.5)
0.0282
(23.5)
Buddy Hield 0.0371
0.0285
(25.1)
0.0285
(22.4)
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 0.0470
0.0345
(33.4)
0.0353
(29.0)
Jalen Williams 0.0453
0.0298
(38.5)
0.0251
(46.9)

Individual Misses for STL/MIN

SPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 0.0337 0.0464 34.1
2 Dejounte Murray 0.0553 0.0416 32.8
3 Quentin Grimes 0.0391 0.0222 32.8
4 OG Anunoby 0.0430 0.0537 28.9
5 Jalen McDaniels 0.0304 0.0434 27.7
6 Jabari Smith Jr. 0.0298 0.0175 26.4
7 Jordan Clarkson 0.0311 0.0166 25.8
8 Trey Murphy III 0.0282 0.0364 23.6
9 Coby White 0.0194 0.0312 23.1
10 Walker Kessler 0.0298 0.0153 22.3

ESPN

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Markelle Fultz 0.0058 0.0489 77.5
2 Killian Hayes 0.0340 0.0483 31.7
3 Corey Kispert 0.0298 0.0153 29.6
4 Trae Young 0.0208 0.0315 28.1
5 RJ Barrett 0.0241 0.0125 27.7
6 Terry Rozier 0.0213 0.0333 27.6
7 Derrick White 0.0350 0.0233 26.2
8 Tyus Jones 0.0301 0.0428 25.3
9 KJ Martin 0.0290 0.0179 24.5
10 Jaden Ivey 0.0365 0.0265 22.1

BLK/MIN

Everybody Missed for BLK/MIN

Player Actual SPS ESPN
Andrew Nembhard 0.0063
0.0188
(23.8)
0.0188
(24.3)
Myles Turner 0.0767
0.0926
(27.2)
0.0565
(38.5)
Jakob Poeltl 0.0451
0.0610
(28.4)
0.0328
(25.0)
Drew Eubanks 0.0644
0.0391
(41.8)
0.0188
(73.5)
Rudy Gobert 0.0442
0.0682
(49.3)
0.0329
(26.0)
Nic Claxton 0.0832
0.0528
(71.4)
0.0716
(28.4)
Walker Kessler 0.1016
0.0188
(142.7)
0.0734
(49.4)

Individual Misses for BLK/MIN

SPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Brook Lopez 0.0555 0.0813 63.9
2 Jaren Jackson Jr. 0.0775 0.1057 52.4
3 Bol Bol 0.0342 0.0565 35.0
4 Isaiah Hartenstein 0.0606 0.0393 33.0
5 KJ Martin 0.0278 0.0131 31.4
6 Jabari Smith Jr. 0.0188 0.0302 30.5
7 Jarred Vanderbilt 0.0283 0.0112 30.3
8 Jalen Duren 0.0188 0.0353 29.3
9 Bennedict Mathurin 0.0188 0.0058 26.5
10 Alex Caruso 0.0139 0.0292 25.7

ESPN

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 CJ McCollum 0.0305 0.0143 40.5
2 Onyeka Okongwu 0.0372 0.0579 39.9
3 Tobias Harris 0.0330 0.0164 38.5
4 Paul George 0.0283 0.0103 33.3
5 Deni Avdija 0.0306 0.0144 31.2
6 Lauri Markkanen 0.0310 0.0167 30.6
7 Mitchell Robinson 0.0509 0.0686 29.4
8 Evan Mobley 0.0338 0.0438 29.4
9 Jalen Brunson 0.0192 0.0063 28.7
10 Corey Kispert 0.0188 0.0043 28.6

TOV/MIN

Everybody Missed for TOV/MIN

Player Actual SPS ESPN
T.J. McConnell 0.0937
0.0630
(46.2)
0.0712
(37.9)
Mikal Bridges 0.0429
0.0259
(48.8)
0.0337
(34.0)
Jaden Ivey 0.1029
0.0584
(101.4)
0.0830
(51.3)
Giannis Antetokounmpo 0.1216
0.1001
(42.5)
0.1039
(40.5)

Individual Misses for TOV/MIN

SPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Keegan Murray 0.0584 0.0252 80.2
2 Jordan Poole 0.0727 0.1025 72.2
3 Jordan Clarkson 0.0605 0.0935 64.9
4 Paolo Banchero 0.0584 0.0823 57.0
5 Anthony Edwards 0.0715 0.0912 54.4
6 Luka Dončić 0.1206 0.0987 53.3
7 Keldon Johnson 0.0387 0.0649 53.2
8 James Harden 0.1147 0.0913 50.9
9 Lauri Markkanen 0.0343 0.0559 48.0
10 Dennis Schröder 0.0792 0.0564 46.2

ESPN

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Markelle Fultz 0.0163 0.0782 114.2
2 Corey Kispert 0.0584 0.0263 62.3
3 Troy Brown Jr. 0.0584 0.0263 55.2
4 Killian Hayes 0.0619 0.0803 44.7
5 Russell Westbrook 0.1016 0.1200 44.0
6 Zach LaVine 0.0571 0.0701 42.4
7 Trae Young 0.1041 0.1181 41.5
8 Brandon Ingram 0.0719 0.0962 41.1
9 Dejounte Murray 0.0769 0.0594 40.7
10 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 0.0984 0.0795 40.1

3PM/MIN

Everybody Missed for 3PM/MIN

Player Actual SPS ESPN
Walker Kessler 0.0006
0.0536
(89.2)
0.0319
(52.8)
Klay Thompson 0.1321
0.1100
(51.9)
0.1031
(66.6)

Individual Misses for 3PM/MIN

SPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jalen Duren 0.0536 0.0000 88.4
2 Julius Randle 0.0497 0.0796 83.9
3 Keegan Murray 0.0536 0.0865 79.9
4 Tyrese Maxey 0.0486 0.0794 63.5
5 Jamal Murray 0.0536 0.0806 59.1
6 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 0.0483 0.0240 56.9
7 Trae Young 0.0827 0.0606 54.3
8 Al Horford 0.0483 0.0755 53.5
9 Michael Porter Jr. 0.0755 0.1046 53.5
10 Josh Hart 0.0460 0.0249 50.1

ESPN

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Drew Eubanks 0.0536 0.0044 77.5
2 Mason Plumlee 0.0341 0.0000 69.5
3 CJ McCollum 0.0553 0.0796 65.2
4 Domantas Sabonis 0.0350 0.0113 64.1
5 Rudy Gobert 0.0272 0.0000 57.8
6 Nikola Vučević 0.0649 0.0441 56.5
7 D'Angelo Russell 0.0608 0.0842 54.5
8 Kawhi Leonard 0.0291 0.0595 53.6
9 Jakob Poeltl 0.0277 0.0000 52.2
10 Fred VanVleet 0.0615 0.0817 51.8

FG%

Everybody Missed for FG%

Player Actual SPS ESPN
Jalen Duren 0.6482
0.4839
(261.1)
0.5697
(114.7)
Kevon Looney 0.6302
0.5546
(132.5)
0.5395
(158.2)
Domantas Sabonis 0.6151
0.5577
(135.3)
0.5505
(149.9)
Walker Kessler 0.7198
0.4839
(388.2)
0.5902
(203.8)
Mason Plumlee 0.6798
0.6110
(124.9)
0.5361
(274.5)

Individual Misses for FG%

SPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Mikal Bridges 0.5358 0.4680 224.4
2 Jabari Smith Jr. 0.4839 0.4081 205.4
3 Royce O'Neale 0.4514 0.3862 176.4
4 Jaden Ivey 0.4839 0.4161 174.7
5 Dorian Finney-Smith 0.4698 0.3912 173.9
6 Paolo Banchero 0.4839 0.4269 157.9
7 Scottie Barnes 0.5050 0.4557 153.2
8 Trey Murphy III 0.4179 0.4838 141.8
9 Nic Claxton 0.6380 0.7053 134.6
10 Bennedict Mathurin 0.4839 0.4343 128.0

ESPN

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Drew Eubanks 0.4839 0.6407 232.6
2 P.J. Tucker 0.5220 0.4267 202.0
3 Rudy Gobert 0.5591 0.6593 194.0
4 Markelle Fultz 0.4016 0.5140 182.2
5 Mitchell Robinson 0.5668 0.6714 150.6
6 Daniel Gafford 0.6383 0.7316 133.9
7 Jevon Carter 0.4839 0.4230 128.3
8 Onyeka Okongwu 0.5603 0.6378 125.0
9 T.J. McConnell 0.4524 0.5432 123.5
10 Clint Capela 0.5738 0.6530 119.8

FT%

Everybody Missed for FT%

Player Actual SPS ESPN
Al Horford 0.7143
0.8267
(226.5)
1.0000
(652.0)
Joe Harris 0.6429
0.7647
(194.5)
0.8235
(357.8)
Tyler Herro 0.9341
0.8563
(168.7)
1.0980
(508.2)
Max Strus 0.8764
0.7759
(215.9)
0.6667
(354.7)

Individual Misses for FT%

SPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Walker Kessler 0.7936 0.5157 482.7
2 Reggie Bullock Jr. 0.8431 0.7027 345.1
3 Jalen Duren 0.7936 0.6115 313.4
4 Mason Plumlee 0.4970 0.6358 273.6
5 Patrick Williams 0.7375 0.8571 265.1
6 Aaron Gordon 0.7202 0.6083 241.4
7 Christian Wood 0.6413 0.7722 218.0
8 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 0.8133 0.9053 209.0
9 Ayo Dosunmu 0.7000 0.8049 208.4
10 Kevin Huerter 0.8103 0.7252 199.7

ESPN

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 P.J. Tucker 0.3878 0.8261 738.7
2 Fred VanVleet 0.6400 0.8975 516.9
3 Markelle Fultz 1.0000 0.7832 480.8
4 Tyrese Haliburton 0.5779 0.8706 450.3
5 Derrick White 1.0125 0.8750 443.3
6 Mikal Bridges 0.6990 0.8952 422.3
7 Bruce Brown 0.5244 0.7582 410.7
8 Buddy Hield 0.6145 0.8217 381.3
9 Josh Giddey 0.8382 0.7310 380.7
10 Bam Adebayo 0.8913 0.8060 361.0