2018-19 Fantasy Projection Accuracy

Fantasy-relevant accuracy for 2018-19, excluding players with fewer than 1,500 minutes. Limited to minutes, games, minutes per game, and 9-cat rates.

Summary

System MIN G MIN/G PTS/MIN REB/MIN AST/MIN STL/MIN BLK/MIN TOV/MIN 3PM/MIN FG% FT%
SPS
ESPN

Playing Time

Minutes

Everybody Missed for Minutes

Player Actual SPS ESPN
Landry Shamet 1802
500
(1301.9)
850
(951.9)
Cedi Osman 2444
959
(1485.2)
1418
(1025.5)
Ryan Arcidiacono 1961
766
(1195.7)
500
(1461.3)
Damyean Dotson 2004
852
(1151.7)
500
(1503.8)
Monte Morris 1970
627
(1342.9)
500
(1470.2)

Individual Misses for Minutes

SPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Collin Sexton 500 2605 2105.0
2 Trae Young 500 2503 2003.3
3 Mikal Bridges 500 2417 1917.1
4 Luka Dončić 500 2318 1817.7
5 Deandre Ayton 500 2183 1682.7
6 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 500 2174 1673.9
7 Kevin Knox II 500 2158 1657.9
8 Kevin Huerter 500 2049 1548.5
9 Mike Conley 1004 2342 1338.2
10 Josh Okogie 500 1757 1257.2

ESPN

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Bryn Forbes 500 2293 1792.6
2 Dorian Finney-Smith 500 1985 1485.3
3 DeAndre' Bembry 500 1931 1431.3
4 Terrance Ferguson 500 1931 1431.1
5 Malik Beasley 500 1879 1378.7
6 Langston Galloway 500 1745 1245.2
7 Derrick White 500 1728 1228.0
8 Noah Vonleh 500 1722 1221.7
9 Royce O'Neale 500 1671 1171.1
10 Justin Holiday 1447 2607 1159.4

Games

Everybody Missed for Games

Player Actual SPS ESPN
Monte Morris 82
34
(48.0)
0
(82.0)

Individual Misses for Games

SPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Collin Sexton 0 82 82.0
2 Mikal Bridges 0 82 82.0
3 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 0 82 82.0
4 Trae Young 0 81 81.0
5 Miles Bridges 0 80 80.0
6 Landry Shamet 0 79 79.0
7 Kevin Huerter 0 75 75.0
8 Kevin Knox II 0 75 75.0
9 Josh Okogie 0 74 74.0
10 Jalen Brunson 0 73 73.0

ESPN

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Bryn Forbes 0 82 82.0
2 DeAndre' Bembry 0 82 82.0
3 Royce O'Neale 0 82 82.0
4 Dorian Finney-Smith 0 81 81.0
5 Justin Jackson 0 81 81.0
6 Malik Beasley 0 81 81.0
7 Ryan Arcidiacono 0 81 81.0
8 Langston Galloway 0 80 80.0
9 Torrey Craig 0 75 75.0
10 Terrance Ferguson 0 74 74.0

Rate Stats

MIN/G

Everybody Missed for MIN/G

Player Actual SPS ESPN
Pascal Siakam 31.8452
19.6582
(26760.3)
23.7000
(19816.1)
P.J. Tucker 34.1723
27.9536
(12709.8)
28.1000
(15987.3)
Landry Shamet 22.8088
29.2271
(14597.6)
12.5000
(17914.3)
Cedi Osman 32.1567
12.2910
(44437.2)
19.7000
(29546.6)

Individual Misses for MIN/G

SPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Damyean Dotson 12.5309 27.4494 26521.6
2 Jerami Grant 20.8442 32.6532 26452.3
3 Malik Beasley 10.3900 23.1941 20893.7
4 Terrance Ferguson 13.6373 26.0957 20808.2
5 Bryn Forbes 17.3284 27.9585 20512.5
6 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 32.9188 24.8187 19909.6
7 Derrick White 12.6185 25.7906 19853.1
8 JaVale McGee 10.4280 22.2759 16982.7
9 Miles Bridges 29.2271 21.2042 16464.4
10 Gordon Hayward 32.7538 25.8797 15944.6

ESPN

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Justin Holiday 20.1000 31.7879 29509.7
2 Mikal Bridges 21.1000 29.4770 19361.5
3 Kevin Huerter 17.6000 27.3137 19147.4
4 Trevor Ariza 25.6000 34.0415 18966.4
5 Joe Harris 21.8000 30.1779 18373.6
6 Tomas Satoransky 18.9000 27.0446 16827.6
7 Jeff Green 18.9000 27.2297 16695.7
8 Reggie Bullock Jr. 20.6000 29.8237 16641.0
9 Justin Jackson 29.2271 19.9167 15611.9
10 Royce O'Neale 29.2271 20.3793 15398.7

PTS/MIN

Everybody Missed for PTS/MIN

Player Actual SPS ESPN
Paul George 0.7599
0.6171
(348.9)
0.6117
(420.0)
Buddy Hield 0.6482
0.5100
(309.3)
0.5099
(360.9)
James Harden 0.9830
0.8127
(431.1)
0.8020
(517.9)
Spencer Dinwiddie 0.5972
0.4175
(305.8)
0.4101
(357.4)
Kyle Lowry 0.4184
0.5303
(291.8)
0.5646
(324.5)
Terrence Ross 0.5688
0.4098
(299.1)
0.4297
(298.4)
Pascal Siakam 0.5315
0.3471
(419.0)
0.3598
(436.6)

Individual Misses for PTS/MIN

SPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Mikal Bridges 0.5005 0.2830 573.9
2 Brook Lopez 0.5978 0.4346 425.1
3 Josh Okogie 0.5005 0.3244 344.5
4 Giannis Antetokounmpo 0.6812 0.8456 340.6
5 Kevin Huerter 0.5005 0.3549 339.1
6 Russell Westbrook 0.7444 0.6370 334.7
7 John Collins 0.4483 0.6497 332.0
8 Gordon Hayward 0.5953 0.4428 321.5
9 Austin Rivers 0.4429 0.3048 320.5
10 Luka Dončić 0.5005 0.6584 319.8

ESPN

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Bojan Bogdanovic 0.3792 0.5651 477.3
2 Terrance Ferguson 0.5005 0.2657 454.2
3 Ryan Arcidiacono 0.5005 0.2774 438.3
4 Royce O'Neale 0.5005 0.2549 410.9
5 Dorian Finney-Smith 0.5005 0.3063 386.3
6 D'Angelo Russell 0.5507 0.6994 363.1
7 Montrezl Harrell 0.4622 0.6306 362.9
8 Rodney Hood 0.6122 0.4253 354.2
9 Torrey Craig 0.5005 0.2861 322.8
10 Justin Holiday 0.4464 0.3288 307.4

REB/MIN

Everybody Missed for REB/MIN

Player Actual SPS ESPN
Mikal Bridges 0.1092
0.1878
(205.1)
0.2231
(279.4)
Paul George 0.2210
0.1677
(133.5)
0.1621
(162.6)
Domantas Sabonis 0.3753
0.2735
(175.6)
0.2705
(189.5)
Monte Morris 0.0985
0.1706
(154.5)
0.1878
(179.4)
Giannis Antetokounmpo 0.3808
0.2605
(268.8)
0.2879
(215.0)
Tobias Harris 0.2265
0.1688
(146.3)
0.1691
(158.5)

Individual Misses for REB/MIN

SPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Deandre Ayton 0.1878 0.3340 305.4
2 Collin Sexton 0.1878 0.0906 269.6
3 Landry Shamet 0.1878 0.0744 215.7
4 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 0.1878 0.1067 189.9
5 Trae Young 0.1878 0.1202 184.9
6 Marvin Bagley III 0.1878 0.3005 166.8
7 Kevin Huerter 0.1878 0.1196 152.6
8 Nikola Vučević 0.3176 0.3824 146.9
9 Serge Ibaka 0.2221 0.2989 141.8
10 Jalen Brunson 0.1878 0.1062 139.9

ESPN

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Reggie Bullock Jr. 0.2816 0.0921 359.3
2 Mason Plumlee 0.1097 0.3027 331.0
3 Marcus Smart 0.2478 0.1064 315.0
4 Terrance Ferguson 0.1878 0.0730 225.0
5 Dwight Powell 0.1219 0.2472 205.4
6 Bojan Bogdanovic 0.2072 0.1294 204.7
7 Noah Vonleh 0.1878 0.3067 201.7
8 Bryn Forbes 0.1878 0.1042 195.5
9 Luka Dončić 0.1609 0.2429 186.0
10 Montrezl Harrell 0.3318 0.2479 184.8

AST/MIN

Everybody Missed for AST/MIN

Player Actual SPS ESPN
Devin Booker 0.1931
0.1194
(145.8)
0.1307
(133.6)
Nicolas Batum 0.1049
0.1700
(173.7)
0.1747
(171.0)
Dennis Schröder 0.1396
0.1995
(158.7)
0.2025
(152.3)
D'Angelo Russell 0.2300
0.1757
(111.5)
0.1703
(139.2)
De'Aaron Fox 0.2318
0.1574
(167.0)
0.1758
(135.2)

Individual Misses for AST/MIN

SPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Trae Young 0.1096 0.2609 356.8
2 Kevin Knox II 0.1096 0.0380 173.3
3 James Harden 0.2545 0.2044 168.6
4 Luka Dončić 0.1096 0.1851 154.8
5 Deandre Ayton 0.1096 0.0573 133.2
6 Marvin Bagley III 0.1096 0.0396 123.5
7 Josh Okogie 0.1096 0.0518 116.9
8 Jaren Jackson Jr. 0.1096 0.0423 115.2
9 Mikal Bridges 0.1096 0.0716 113.0
10 Nikola Jokić 0.1784 0.2317 111.4

ESPN

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Tomas Satoransky 0.0689 0.1844 243.7
2 Landry Shamet 0.1835 0.0649 218.8
3 Marcus Smart 0.0490 0.1459 206.9
4 Collin Sexton 0.1603 0.0933 182.0
5 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 0.2031 0.1242 177.7
6 Jrue Holiday 0.1437 0.2157 166.0
7 Dwight Powell 0.1560 0.0674 152.1
8 Terrance Ferguson 0.1096 0.0373 145.1
9 Jalen Brunson 0.2319 0.1445 143.6
10 Dorian Finney-Smith 0.1096 0.0479 128.2

STL/MIN

Everybody Missed for STL/MIN

Player Actual SPS ESPN
Collin Sexton 0.0169
0.0325
(39.0)
0.0386
(50.5)
Marc Gasol 0.0345
0.0243
(26.3)
0.0238
(31.6)
Mikal Bridges 0.0534
0.0325
(52.0)
0.0379
(42.9)
Dewayne Dedmon 0.0429
0.0268
(27.0)
0.0252
(32.1)
Marcus Smart 0.0650
0.0483
(38.1)
0.0368
(67.2)
Kyrie Irving 0.0465
0.0333
(30.6)
0.0332
(34.6)
DeAndre' Bembry 0.0544
0.0386
(31.7)
0.0325
(46.7)
James Harden 0.0551
0.0454
(29.6)
0.0450
(35.5)
Justin Holiday 0.0464
0.0366
(27.3)
0.0297
(49.5)
Jonathan Isaac 0.0296
0.0556
(50.7)
0.0605
(57.3)
De'Aaron Fox 0.0522
0.0353
(44.8)
0.0357
(47.9)

Individual Misses for STL/MIN

SPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Patrick Beverley 0.0477 0.0313 33.6
2 Buddy Hield 0.0353 0.0222 32.7
3 Josh Okogie 0.0325 0.0501 32.0
4 Avery Bradley 0.0374 0.0215 29.1
5 Josh Richardson 0.0427 0.0311 27.8
6 John Collins 0.0278 0.0120 27.7
7 Stephen Curry 0.0517 0.0395 27.0
8 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 0.0325 0.0442 26.8
9 Darren Collison 0.0396 0.0513 26.6

ESPN

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Bojan Bogdanovic 0.0498 0.0268 53.3
2 Thaddeus Young 0.0304 0.0494 53.0
3 Montrezl Harrell 0.0133 0.0329 47.2
4 Cedi Osman 0.0458 0.0246 46.4
5 Delon Wright 0.0767 0.0518 38.3
6 Jerami Grant 0.0395 0.0234 36.1
7 Bradley Beal 0.0307 0.0400 35.0
8 Jaylen Brown 0.0555 0.0361 32.9
9 Marco Belinelli 0.0385 0.0193 30.8

BLK/MIN

Everybody Missed for BLK/MIN

Player Actual SPS ESPN
Derrick Favors 0.0600
0.0373
(40.1)
0.0390
(39.5)
Myles Turner 0.0939
0.0646
(62.0)
0.0653
(63.6)
Clint Capela 0.0454
0.0615
(36.3)
0.0645
(40.0)
Brook Lopez 0.0771
0.0537
(54.2)
0.0560
(52.2)
Jerami Grant 0.0383
0.0492
(28.6)
0.0681
(74.2)
Kevin Durant 0.0311
0.0466
(41.9)
0.0468
(38.7)
Monte Morris 0.0020
0.0175
(30.5)
0.0203
(33.3)
John Collins 0.0213
0.0440
(41.4)
0.0442
(39.4)
Nemanja Bjelica 0.0313
0.0144
(30.3)
0.0160
(29.8)

Individual Misses for BLK/MIN

SPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jaren Jackson Jr. 0.0203 0.0541 51.3
2 Collin Sexton 0.0203 0.0023 46.8
3 Trae Young 0.0203 0.0060 35.8
4 Josh Richardson 0.0267 0.0134 33.9
5 Danny Green 0.0380 0.0239 31.3
6 Kelly Oubre Jr. 0.0146 0.0305 30.8
7 Kawhi Leonard 0.0262 0.0118 29.5
8 Jalen Brunson 0.0203 0.0025 28.3
9 Marvin Bagley III 0.0203 0.0376 27.2
10 Landry Shamet 0.0203 0.0055 26.6

ESPN

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Reggie Bullock Jr. 0.0537 0.0064 86.4
2 Joe Ingles 0.0340 0.0078 63.7
3 Mason Plumlee 0.0108 0.0439 59.8
4 Maxi Kleber 0.0203 0.0519 49.6
5 Deandre Ayton 0.0547 0.0307 49.4
6 Marvin Williams 0.0086 0.0286 45.5
7 Bryn Forbes 0.0203 0.0017 39.4
8 Cedi Osman 0.0204 0.0045 35.6
9 Ryan Arcidiacono 0.0203 0.0020 33.1
10 Bojan Bogdanovic 0.0141 0.0004 31.7

TOV/MIN

Everybody Missed for TOV/MIN

Player Actual SPS ESPN
Devin Booker 0.1177
0.0914
(56.8)
0.0966
(55.8)
Landry Shamet 0.0250
0.0592
(63.6)
0.0800
(92.5)
Brook Lopez 0.0353
0.0669
(75.7)
0.0671
(65.1)
Jabari Parker 0.0876
0.0538
(56.5)
0.0546
(63.2)
Zach LaVine 0.0990
0.0567
(89.8)
0.0575
(98.3)
Monte Morris 0.0264
0.0526
(53.7)
0.0592
(57.4)
Karl-Anthony Towns 0.0943
0.0591
(86.9)
0.0603
(96.0)
DeAndre Jordan 0.0747
0.0517
(45.1)
0.0502
(57.9)
Giannis Antetokounmpo 0.1136
0.0786
(80.3)
0.0800
(88.1)
Pascal Siakam 0.0604
0.0399
(49.7)
0.0378
(67.3)

Individual Misses for TOV/MIN

SPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Trae Young 0.0592 0.1230 157.2
2 Luka Dončić 0.0592 0.1066 107.4
3 Mikal Bridges 0.0592 0.0290 75.6
4 Eric Bledsoe 0.0951 0.0726 53.3
5 Miles Bridges 0.0592 0.0295 52.2
6 Nicolas Batum 0.0703 0.0497 50.9
7 Justise Winslow 0.0459 0.0725 50.1
8 Blake Griffin 0.0769 0.0965 48.7
9 Spencer Dinwiddie 0.0534 0.0794 47.8
10 Dario Saric 0.0694 0.0480 45.4

ESPN

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Al-Farouq Aminu 0.0744 0.0314 90.1
2 Josh Okogie 0.0878 0.0359 84.7
3 Langston Galloway 0.0592 0.0138 72.9
4 Jonathan Isaac 0.0723 0.0376 61.9
5 Justin Jackson 0.0592 0.0180 60.5
6 Terrance Ferguson 0.0592 0.0243 60.2
7 Collin Sexton 0.0976 0.0710 59.5
8 Bogdan Bogdanović 0.0341 0.0601 57.8
9 Jrue Holiday 0.0677 0.0874 56.2
10 Reggie Bullock Jr. 0.0680 0.0346 55.7

3PM/MIN

Everybody Missed for 3PM/MIN

Player Actual SPS ESPN
Landry Shamet 0.0927
0.0504
(68.4)
0.0400
(89.1)
James Harden 0.1319
0.0936
(97.1)
0.0940
(99.3)
Serge Ibaka 0.0244
0.0479
(56.1)
0.0637
(85.5)
Rodney Hood 0.0444
0.0729
(62.2)
0.0777
(69.1)
Harrison Barnes 0.0687
0.0398
(62.2)
0.0146
(128.9)
DeMar DeRozan 0.0026
0.0259
(74.1)
0.0415
(113.3)
Terrence Ross 0.1009
0.0639
(70.3)
0.0661
(68.0)
Alex Len 0.0479
0.0034
(62.1)
0.0000
(69.0)

Individual Misses for 3PM/MIN

SPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Deandre Ayton 0.0504 0.0000 119.4
2 Blake Griffin 0.0410 0.0721 70.2
3 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 0.0504 0.0235 67.9
4 Malik Beasley 0.0492 0.0868 62.4
5 Reggie Jackson 0.0448 0.0760 61.5
6 Kevin Durant 0.0676 0.0507 57.4
7 Marvin Bagley III 0.0504 0.0191 55.7
8 Paul George 0.0789 0.1028 55.6
9 Stephen Curry 0.1250 0.1519 52.5
10 Khris Middleton 0.0491 0.0748 51.2

ESPN

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Reggie Bullock Jr. 0.0000 0.0788 142.0
2 Bojan Bogdanovic 0.0188 0.0637 107.4
3 Mason Plumlee 0.0545 0.0012 97.9
4 Kevin Knox II 0.0108 0.0579 94.7
5 Joe Ingles 0.0360 0.0736 88.4
6 Wesley Matthews 0.0272 0.0717 86.3
7 Marco Belinelli 0.0312 0.0810 84.5
8 Thaddeus Young 0.0512 0.0205 84.4
9 Collin Sexton 0.0121 0.0457 79.2
10 Mikal Bridges 0.0082 0.0434 77.4

FG%

Everybody Missed for FG%

Player Actual SPS ESPN
Reggie Bullock Jr. 0.4125
0.4798
(125.2)
0.5854
(325.2)
Bam Adebayo 0.5761
0.5173
(113.8)
0.5078
(130.4)
Cedi Osman 0.4265
0.4893
(151.6)
0.4772
(124.1)
Gary Harris 0.4239
0.4939
(113.6)
0.4873
(104.1)
Domantas Sabonis 0.5900
0.4941
(177.7)
0.4822
(198.0)
Danny Green 0.4651
0.3897
(168.6)
0.4004
(143.0)
Rudy Gobert 0.6685
0.6253
(113.3)
0.6134
(141.9)
Kevin Knox II 0.3698
0.4671
(208.4)
0.4362
(143.4)

Individual Misses for FG%

SPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Deandre Ayton 0.4671 0.5851 259.1
2 Josh Okogie 0.4671 0.3858 141.5
3 Josh Hart 0.4793 0.4073 122.2
4 Trae Young 0.4671 0.4180 121.1
5 Giannis Antetokounmpo 0.5314 0.5782 112.0
6 Al Horford 0.4799 0.5353 110.6
7 Nikola Vučević 0.4757 0.5177 107.3
8 Andrew Wiggins 0.4545 0.4119 106.6
9 Marcus Smart 0.3748 0.4215 104.4
10 D.J. Augustin 0.4258 0.4697 101.3

ESPN

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Dwight Powell 0.3634 0.5967 387.6
2 Montrezl Harrell 0.4722 0.6149 307.6
3 Mason Plumlee 0.4170 0.5928 304.0
4 Andre Drummond 0.6180 0.5333 224.5
5 Thaddeus Young 0.4624 0.5268 159.9
6 Langston Galloway 0.4671 0.3884 137.5
7 Jerami Grant 0.4470 0.4970 130.1
8 Jae Crowder 0.4547 0.3990 120.9
9 Harrison Barnes 0.4649 0.4197 114.8
10 Damyean Dotson 0.4671 0.4155 103.7

FT%

Everybody Missed for FT%

Player Actual SPS ESPN
Russell Westbrook 0.6563
0.7836
(342.7)
0.7725
(300.9)
Al-Farouq Aminu 0.8671
0.7320
(302.7)
0.7109
(361.9)
Cedi Osman 0.7790
0.6286
(360.3)
0.6296
(369.4)
Clint Capela 0.6360
0.5541
(177.5)
0.5439
(211.1)
Hassan Whiteside 0.4486
0.6651
(367.5)
0.6616
(353.7)
Avery Bradley 0.8600
0.7619
(181.2)
0.7423
(227.7)
Austin Rivers 0.5263
0.6732
(304.0)
0.6641
(275.8)
Willie Cauley-Stein 0.5512
0.6453
(215.0)
0.6460
(205.8)
Jae Crowder 0.7208
0.8170
(214.8)
0.8311
(234.9)
Bryn Forbes 0.8846
0.6857
(449.1)
0.7794
(245.4)
Jusuf Nurkić 0.7726
0.6286
(278.3)
0.6131
(318.2)
DeAndre Jordan 0.7045
0.5261
(359.0)
0.5125
(396.8)
Pascal Siakam 0.7848
0.6543
(324.6)
0.6813
(268.1)

Individual Misses for FT%

SPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Steven Adams 0.5880 0.5000 242.9
2 Malik Beasley 0.7167 0.8485 242.0
3 Evan Turner 0.8381 0.7075 214.5
4 Justin Holiday 0.8175 0.8962 197.4
5 Terrance Ferguson 0.8214 0.7255 191.1
6 Joe Ingles 0.7746 0.7073 180.6
7 Marc Gasol 0.8296 0.7589 179.7

ESPN

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Reggie Bullock Jr. 0.4926 0.8588 691.4
2 Bojan Bogdanovic 0.5833 0.8066 579.0
3 Mason Plumlee 0.8387 0.5606 478.3
4 Luka Dončić 0.8395 0.7134 288.0
5 DeAndre' Bembry 0.7794 0.6397 266.3
6 Montrezl Harrell 0.7526 0.6425 233.7
7 Terrence Ross 0.7722 0.8750 225.0