2020-21 Fantasy Projection Accuracy

Fantasy-relevant accuracy for 2020-21, excluding players with fewer than 1,500 minutes. Limited to minutes, games, minutes per game, and 9-cat rates.

Summary

Playing Time

Minutes

Everybody Missed for Minutes

Player Actual SPS ESPN
Reggie Bullock Jr. 1949
1123
(826.0)
1182
(767.7)
Jae'Sean Tate 2043
500
(1542.7)
500
(1542.7)
Theo Maledon 1778
500
(1277.7)
500
(1277.7)
Dwayne Bacon 1853
1032
(821.0)
1109
(743.6)
Julius Randle 2667
1874
(792.2)
2085
(581.4)
Desmond Bane 1519
500
(1019.0)
500
(1019.0)
Norman Powell 2205
1452
(753.4)
1581
(624.2)
Jaden McDaniels 1511
500
(1010.8)
500
(1010.8)
Keldon Johnson 1968
777
(1190.5)
930
(1037.8)

Individual Misses for Minutes

SPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Anthony Edwards 500 2314 1814.2
2 Isaac Okoro 500 2173 1673.2
3 Patrick Williams 500 1983 1483.4
4 Saddiq Bey 500 1909 1409.0
5 Stephen Curry 889 2152 1262.3
6 Tyrese Haliburton 500 1746 1245.7
7 Zion Williamson 973 2026 1052.6
8 RJ Barrett 1513 2511 997.7
9 Michael Porter Jr. 1083 1912 829.0
10 Nicolas Batum 1072 1835 763.2

ESPN

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jakob Poeltl 1098 1845 746.6
2 CJ McCollum 2336 1600 736.6
3 James Harden 2318 1609 709.4
4 Kelly Olynyk 1365 1997 631.9
5 Karl-Anthony Towns 2318 1689 629.3
6 Kelly Oubre Jr. 2301 1688 613.5
7 LeBron James 2110 1504 606.8
8 Kyle Lowry 2190 1602 589.0
9 Cedi Osman 2086 1511 576.0
10 Josh Jackson 994 1560 566.0

Games

Everybody Missed for Games

Player Actual SPS ESPN
Desmond Bane 68
0
(68.0)
0
(68.0)
Jae'Sean Tate 70
0
(70.0)
0
(70.0)
Theo Maledon 65
0
(65.0)
0
(65.0)
Jaden McDaniels 63
0
(63.0)
0
(63.0)

Individual Misses for Games

SPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Anthony Edwards 0 72 72.0
2 Patrick Williams 0 71 71.0
3 Saddiq Bey 0 70 70.0
4 Isaac Okoro 0 67 67.0
5 Tyrese Haliburton 0 58 58.0
6 Stephen Curry 28 63 35.0
7 Keldon Johnson 40 69 29.0
8 Nicolas Batum 38 67 29.0
9 Zion Williamson 36 61 25.0
10 Reggie Bullock Jr. 42 65 23.0

ESPN

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 James Harden 67 44 23.0
2 CJ McCollum 66 47 19.0
3 Kyle Lowry 65 46 19.0
4 LeBron James 63 45 18.0
5 Jamal Murray 65 48 17.0
6 Karl-Anthony Towns 67 50 17.0
7 Donovan Mitchell 68 53 15.0
8 Enes Freedom 58 72 14.0
9 Jimmy Butler III 66 52 14.0
10 Marcus Smart 62 48 14.0

Rate Stats

MIN/G

Everybody Missed for MIN/G

Player Actual SPS ESPN
Gary Trent Jr. 31.0687
20.5531
(14752.6)
24.4000
(10330.0)
Kelly Olynyk 28.5270
21.2358
(9909.5)
21.0000
(13161.3)
Jakob Poeltl 26.7411
17.7147
(12358.1)
16.9000
(16430.8)
Dwayne Bacon 25.7331
17.7897
(10402.9)
18.8000
(11111.1)
Julius Randle 37.5597
30.7295
(12004.2)
33.1000
(9396.4)
Desmond Bane 22.3377
30.7634
(16335.5)
30.7634
(14220.2)
Norman Powell 31.9635
23.8049
(12857.7)
25.1000
(13072.7)
Jaden McDaniels 23.9807
30.7634
(13765.4)
30.7634
(11661.5)
Lonnie Walker IV 25.3641
15.8208
(10979.3)
18.2000
(9477.9)
Keldon Johnson 28.5186
19.4325
(13297.2)
15.5000
(23775.8)

Individual Misses for MIN/G

SPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Michael Porter Jr. 17.1937 31.3484 22614.3
2 Darius Bazley 18.9625 31.1674 16929.7
3 Carmelo Anthony 31.3837 24.4948 15579.0
4 Saddiq Bey 30.7634 27.2717 11111.3
5 Patrick Williams 30.7634 27.9346 10229.2
6 Theo Maledon 30.7634 27.3493 10209.1
7 Dejounte Murray 24.9051 31.9316 10050.5
8 Royce O'Neale 24.8861 31.5561 9726.4
9 Ricky Rubio 29.2115 26.0525 9721.8
10 Thaddeus Young 27.4508 24.2970 9058.3

ESPN

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Reggie Bullock Jr. 21.1000 29.9888 15501.9
2 Dorian Finney-Smith 25.1000 32.0090 11471.1
3 Cedi Osman 32.1000 25.6018 11229.5
4 Buddy Hield 28.9000 34.2656 10776.3
5 Kyle Anderson 20.8000 27.3527 10600.3
6 Isaac Okoro 26.9000 32.4363 9997.4
7 T.J. McConnell 19.7000 26.0318 9691.8
8 Kelly Oubre Jr. 35.4000 30.6827 9540.4
9 Terry Rozier 29.7000 34.5421 9309.5
10 Josh Jackson 18.4000 25.1548 9074.9

PTS/MIN

Everybody Missed for PTS/MIN

Player Actual SPS ESPN
Jaylen Brown 0.7155
0.5615
(299.4)
0.5761
(293.6)
Kyle Anderson 0.4525
0.3001
(279.8)
0.2928
(315.6)
James Harden 0.6732
0.9228
(408.3)
0.8770
(315.9)
Terry Rozier 0.5903
0.4838
(243.8)
0.4970
(240.3)
Eric Bledsoe 0.4116
0.5446
(289.8)
0.5584
(294.2)
Robert Covington 0.2644
0.4034
(321.0)
0.4579
(417.2)
Jerami Grant 0.6587
0.4395
(393.4)
0.4655
(367.2)
Jae'Sean Tate 0.3887
0.5197
(276.2)
0.5197
(252.4)
Theo Maledon 0.3701
0.5197
(273.4)
0.5197
(252.6)
Buddy Hield 0.4834
0.6172
(335.8)
0.6137
(298.8)
Jaden McDaniels 0.2826
0.5197
(364.5)
0.5197
(346.9)
Stephen Curry 0.9365
0.7659
(358.2)
0.8172
(272.8)
Nerlens Noel 0.2095
0.3909
(287.0)
0.3903
(268.1)

Individual Misses for PTS/MIN

SPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Isaac Okoro 0.5197 0.2973 492.6
2 Patrick Williams 0.5197 0.3302 384.1
3 Nikola Jokić 0.6238 0.7629 335.7
4 Jayson Tatum 0.6121 0.7390 281.0
5 Bradley Beal 0.7542 0.8747 249.8
6 De'Aaron Fox 0.5964 0.7175 238.1
7 Steven Adams 0.4159 0.2730 236.0

ESPN

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Deandre Ayton 0.6549 0.4715 372.1
2 Anthony Edwards 0.4871 0.6015 282.1
3 Russell Westbrook 0.7348 0.6100 277.8
4 Mikal Bridges 0.3105 0.4132 258.6
5 Collin Sexton 0.5885 0.6903 231.1
6 Khris Middleton 0.7175 0.6105 225.8
7 Saddiq Bey 0.3435 0.4489 215.5

REB/MIN

Everybody Missed for REB/MIN

Player Actual SPS ESPN
Thaddeus Young 0.2560
0.1994
(105.3)
0.2033
(95.5)
Royce O'Neale 0.2165
0.1864
(83.3)
0.1811
(90.5)
Russell Westbrook 0.3166
0.2517
(170.6)
0.2435
(185.0)
Tyrese Haliburton 0.0991
0.1822
(132.7)
0.1705
(115.9)
Isaac Okoro 0.0948
0.1822
(174.6)
0.1786
(171.1)
James Harden 0.2163
0.1765
(75.6)
0.1734
(77.1)
Clint Capela 0.4757
0.3903
(175.6)
0.3084
(327.0)
Kyle Kuzma 0.2134
0.1791
(80.9)
0.1798
(75.4)
Eric Bledsoe 0.1156
0.1613
(81.5)
0.1587
(80.6)
Theo Maledon 0.1187
0.1822
(100.3)
0.1822
(104.0)
Rudy Gobert 0.4390
0.3836
(136.9)
0.3932
(111.2)
Harrison Barnes 0.1831
0.1480
(88.8)
0.1466
(87.4)
Carmelo Anthony 0.1266
0.1873
(90.5)
0.1914
(101.0)
Ivica Zubac 0.3227
0.3808
(82.0)
0.3868
(95.1)
Giannis Antetokounmpo 0.3334
0.3956
(110.8)
0.3904
(104.6)

Individual Misses for REB/MIN

SPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Enes Freedom 0.4050 0.4524 95.8
2 John Collins 0.3107 0.2527 94.1
3 Jonas Valanciunas 0.4002 0.4421 86.1
4 Will Barton 0.1799 0.1302 74.0
5 Michael Porter Jr. 0.2779 0.2327 72.7

ESPN

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jerami Grant 0.2077 0.1367 120.8
2 Zion Williamson 0.2670 0.2177 89.8
3 P.J. Washington 0.1790 0.2140 78.1
4 Daniel Theis 0.2754 0.2224 76.8
5 Jordan Clarkson 0.1150 0.1507 74.2

AST/MIN

Everybody Missed for AST/MIN

Player Actual SPS ESPN
Devin Booker 0.1273
0.1809
(131.5)
0.1791
(130.0)
Thaddeus Young 0.1761
0.0753
(159.3)
0.0746
(158.8)
Draymond Green 0.2816
0.2115
(130.3)
0.2189
(113.3)
Russell Westbrook 0.3221
0.2340
(198.4)
0.2525
(152.0)
Nicolas Batum 0.0807
0.1204
(80.9)
0.1278
(96.6)
James Harden 0.2952
0.2045
(138.9)
0.2079
(131.7)
Eric Bledsoe 0.1269
0.1852
(132.3)
0.1867
(137.7)
Chris Paul 0.2828
0.2191
(130.6)
0.2285
(107.4)
Domantas Sabonis 0.1860
0.1313
(112.3)
0.1383
(94.1)
Julius Randle 0.1601
0.0987
(152.1)
0.0969
(154.1)
Darius Garland 0.1838
0.1270
(93.8)
0.1261
(93.4)
Jaden McDaniels 0.0470
0.1176
(113.2)
0.1176
(114.9)
Jimmy Butler III 0.2115
0.1520
(96.2)
0.1511
(95.9)
Coby White 0.1521
0.1075
(86.8)
0.1047
(90.5)

Individual Misses for AST/MIN

SPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Patrick Williams 0.1176 0.0499 142.8
2 Saddiq Bey 0.1176 0.0498 137.8
3 Isaac Okoro 0.1176 0.0589 137.0
4 Tyrese Haliburton 0.1176 0.1770 96.1
5 Jayson Tatum 0.0810 0.1205 80.6
6 DeMar DeRozan 0.1633 0.2052 77.2

ESPN

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Khris Middleton 0.1119 0.1631 103.8
2 Malcolm Brogdon 0.2112 0.1705 89.2
3 Jae'Sean Tate 0.1176 0.0871 73.3
4 Jerami Grant 0.0385 0.0831 71.5
5 LeBron James 0.2748 0.2328 71.5
6 Solomon Hill 0.0903 0.0496 70.0

STL/MIN

Everybody Missed for STL/MIN

Player Actual SPS ESPN
Dejounte Murray 0.0472
0.0626
(29.3)
0.0653
(34.0)
Mikal Bridges 0.0324
0.0512
(40.0)
0.0537
(44.7)
Paul George 0.0340
0.0526
(30.6)
0.0532
(30.7)
Dennis Schröder 0.0358
0.0257
(23.1)
0.0261
(23.3)
James Harden 0.0329
0.0509
(26.1)
0.0492
(22.5)
Justin Holiday 0.0339
0.0451
(20.7)
0.0460
(21.6)
Kevin Huerter 0.0386
0.0305
(20.7)
0.0297
(23.7)
Eric Bledsoe 0.0260
0.0435
(33.3)
0.0458
(37.0)
T.J. McConnell 0.0713
0.0462
(48.0)
0.0454
(50.5)
Zach LaVine 0.0226
0.0372
(26.1)
0.0405
(31.7)
Jae'Sean Tate 0.0416
0.0310
(25.1)
0.0310
(26.2)
Domantas Sabonis 0.0341
0.0237
(26.9)
0.0231
(29.6)
Darius Garland 0.0369
0.0243
(25.7)
0.0240
(27.0)
Lonnie Walker IV 0.0191
0.0342
(20.5)
0.0386
(26.3)
Keldon Johnson 0.0203
0.0425
(40.2)
0.0516
(57.1)

Individual Misses for STL/MIN

SPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Tyrese Haliburton 0.0310 0.0441 25.8
2 RJ Barrett 0.0330 0.0211 25.6
3 Coby White 0.0307 0.0176 24.5
4 Dillon Brooks 0.0304 0.0391 20.7
5 Russell Westbrook 0.0479 0.0376 20.3

ESPN

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Donte DiVincenzo 0.0585 0.0397 30.0
2 Richaun Holmes 0.0359 0.0219 20.9
3 Terry Rozier 0.0302 0.0365 20.5
4 Jimmy Butler III 0.0524 0.0619 20.5
5 Danny Green 0.0398 0.0476 19.3

BLK/MIN

Everybody Missed for BLK/MIN

Player Actual SPS ESPN
Thaddeus Young 0.0242
0.0148
(17.4)
0.0126
(21.7)
Dejounte Murray 0.0033
0.0122
(16.8)
0.0148
(21.3)
Mikal Bridges 0.0268
0.0206
(17.4)
0.0188
(22.5)
Daniel Theis 0.0356
0.0497
(20.7)
0.0554
(29.1)
Luka Dončić 0.0159
0.0094
(17.4)
0.0085
(20.3)
Darius Bazley 0.0146
0.0354
(33.8)
0.0366
(35.1)
Clint Capela 0.0680
0.0516
(33.2)
0.0553
(27.0)
Jayson Tatum 0.0135
0.0250
(23.7)
0.0282
(29.9)
Brook Lopez 0.0542
0.0787
(44.6)
0.0820
(49.9)
Montrezl Harrell 0.0310
0.0438
(18.4)
0.0459
(21.0)
Fred VanVleet 0.0195
0.0103
(19.6)
0.0090
(22.9)
Rudy Gobert 0.0869
0.0619
(57.0)
0.0662
(48.7)
Saddiq Bey 0.0073
0.0180
(18.1)
0.0333
(46.6)
P.J. Washington 0.0404
0.0249
(32.5)
0.0247
(33.8)
Jaden McDaniels 0.0397
0.0180
(34.6)
0.0180
(35.2)
Tobias Harris 0.0253
0.0151
(22.8)
0.0146
(24.7)

Individual Misses for BLK/MIN

SPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Nerlens Noel 0.0775 0.0912 22.8
2 Theo Maledon 0.0180 0.0062 18.9
3 Julius Randle 0.0149 0.0067 18.8
4 Andrew Wiggins 0.0238 0.0296 16.4

ESPN

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Isaac Okoro 0.0259 0.0110 28.9
2 Kyrie Irving 0.0091 0.0196 22.7
3 Nikola Vučević 0.0315 0.0204 22.4
4 Joel Embiid 0.0587 0.0435 21.6

TOV/MIN

Everybody Missed for TOV/MIN

Player Actual SPS ESPN
Thaddeus Young 0.0829
0.0556
(49.9)
0.0541
(53.0)
Jaylen Brown 0.0791
0.0592
(45.3)
0.0640
(36.8)
Joe Harris 0.0290
0.0505
(40.2)
0.0488
(35.4)
Paul George 0.0983
0.0785
(41.2)
0.0800
(39.4)
Nicolas Batum 0.0289
0.0513
(35.9)
0.0517
(35.8)
Darius Bazley 0.0712
0.0404
(57.7)
0.0440
(52.3)
Jayson Tatum 0.0747
0.0589
(42.7)
0.0621
(36.5)
Robert Covington 0.0285
0.0474
(35.9)
0.0493
(39.1)
Eric Bledsoe 0.0540
0.0834
(56.1)
0.0844
(57.2)
Jerami Grant 0.0596
0.0314
(56.9)
0.0297
(60.8)
Luguentz Dort 0.0512
0.0315
(34.7)
0.0243
(46.6)
Domantas Sabonis 0.0955
0.0786
(44.1)
0.0807
(40.3)
Theo Maledon 0.0793
0.0596
(40.1)
0.0596
(41.0)
Jaden McDaniels 0.0311
0.0596
(38.7)
0.0596
(38.0)
Ricky Rubio 0.0627
0.0881
(40.0)
0.0894
(41.4)
Devonte' Graham 0.0506
0.0747
(35.1)
0.0806
(44.2)

Individual Misses for TOV/MIN

SPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Saddiq Bey 0.0596 0.0314 48.3
2 Isaac Okoro 0.0596 0.0396 37.3
3 Stephen Curry 0.0855 0.0990 35.2
4 Draymond Green 0.0812 0.0949 32.8

ESPN

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Tyrese Haliburton 0.0871 0.0527 54.3
2 Devin Booker 0.1120 0.0912 39.9
3 Dejounte Murray 0.0761 0.0547 38.8
4 Coby White 0.0602 0.0724 33.4

3PM/MIN

Everybody Missed for 3PM/MIN

Player Actual SPS ESPN
Trae Young 0.0640
0.0844
(53.0)
0.0934
(62.7)
Jordan Clarkson 0.1144
0.0761
(61.3)
0.0741
(73.1)
Nikola Vučević 0.0750
0.0425
(65.3)
0.0407
(80.1)
Kyle Anderson 0.0498
0.0165
(54.2)
0.0129
(69.4)
James Harden 0.0752
0.1189
(77.7)
0.1109
(57.6)
Jae'Sean Tate 0.0294
0.0571
(66.1)
0.0571
(57.0)
Saddiq Bey 0.0917
0.0571
(57.2)
0.0395
(99.4)
Julius Randle 0.0600
0.0288
(70.9)
0.0288
(82.9)
Malcolm Brogdon 0.0751
0.0484
(42.7)
0.0436
(60.7)

Individual Misses for 3PM/MIN

SPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Isaac Okoro 0.0571 0.0285 72.1
2 Patrick Williams 0.0571 0.0272 68.4
3 Thaddeus Young 0.0352 0.0073 53.7
4 Dennis Schröder 0.0568 0.0363 49.1
5 Lonzo Ball 0.0668 0.0984 47.3
6 Joe Ingles 0.0682 0.0980 47.0
7 CJ McCollum 0.0718 0.1056 46.8
8 Stephen Curry 0.1316 0.1566 44.0
9 Luguentz Dort 0.0401 0.0732 44.0
10 Keldon Johnson 0.0476 0.0305 42.7

ESPN

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Rudy Gobert 0.0571 0.0000 125.2
2 Deandre Ayton 0.0571 0.0019 117.1
3 Clint Capela 0.0571 0.0000 108.7
4 Jakob Poeltl 0.0571 0.0000 105.7
5 Richaun Holmes 0.0571 0.0011 100.0
6 Steven Adams 0.0571 0.0000 91.9
7 Ivica Zubac 0.0571 0.0006 91.1
8 Nerlens Noel 0.0571 0.0000 88.6
9 Khem Birch 0.0571 0.0085 74.6
10 Anthony Edwards 0.0466 0.0739 62.8

FG%

Everybody Missed for FG%

Player Actual SPS ESPN
Thaddeus Young 0.5589
0.4758
(134.4)
0.4825
(120.3)
Ja Morant 0.4493
0.4901
(87.4)
0.4882
(87.2)
Mikal Bridges 0.5426
0.4858
(129.0)
0.4864
(123.6)
Isaac Okoro 0.4204
0.4764
(125.7)
0.4664
(107.6)
Cedi Osman 0.3737
0.4407
(104.0)
0.4379
(102.3)
Brook Lopez 0.5031
0.4411
(114.5)
0.4436
(106.4)
Eric Bledsoe 0.4205
0.4740
(116.7)
0.4814
(136.0)
Jerami Grant 0.4292
0.4907
(115.8)
0.4876
(113.5)
Zach LaVine 0.5067
0.4587
(93.9)
0.4507
(106.6)
Theo Maledon 0.3681
0.4764
(195.8)
0.4764
(198.9)
Deandre Ayton 0.6259
0.5687
(117.1)
0.5762
(97.5)
Harrison Barnes 0.4969
0.4455
(104.3)
0.4424
(107.0)
Saddiq Bey 0.4038
0.4764
(142.2)
0.4484
(92.0)
Buddy Hield 0.4062
0.4402
(87.1)
0.4372
(84.0)
Miles Bridges 0.5032
0.4465
(106.0)
0.4388
(117.6)
Ivica Zubac 0.6523
0.5892
(98.6)
0.5923
(90.7)
Nikola Jokić 0.5661
0.5230
(102.8)
0.5190
(108.3)

Individual Misses for FG%

SPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Keldon Johnson 0.5560 0.4794 154.2
2 Anthony Edwards 0.4764 0.4170 141.7
3 Julius Randle 0.4921 0.4557 101.9

ESPN

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Clint Capela 0.6409 0.5942 95.4
2 Michael Porter Jr. 0.4902 0.5422 92.7
3 Jalen Brunson 0.4675 0.5231 88.3

FT%

Everybody Missed for FT%

Player Actual SPS ESPN
Duncan Robinson 0.8267
0.8923
(178.0)
0.8846
(160.2)
Russell Westbrook 0.6562
0.7242
(192.2)
0.7520
(257.6)
Daniel Theis 0.6727
0.7544
(151.6)
0.7527
(148.6)
Steven Adams 0.4444
0.5590
(204.7)
0.5504
(190.7)
Kyle Anderson 0.7826
0.6706
(186.7)
0.6468
(232.0)
Lonzo Ball 0.7812
0.5556
(371.5)
0.5376
(403.1)
Eric Bledsoe 0.6872
0.7744
(211.7)
0.7890
(242.2)
Jerami Grant 0.8455
0.7308
(185.9)
0.7148
(215.4)
T.J. McConnell 0.6875
0.8043
(233.4)
0.8182
(257.9)
Jae'Sean Tate 0.6939
0.7974
(238.1)
0.7974
(237.8)
Julius Randle 0.8112
0.7355
(167.1)
0.7264
(191.7)
Dwayne Bacon 0.8239
0.7027
(200.3)
0.6921
(220.2)
Jaden McDaniels 0.6000
0.7974
(317.9)
0.7974
(317.7)
Kelly Oubre Jr. 0.6949
0.7864
(176.4)
0.7806
(166.4)
Coby White 0.9014
0.8000
(190.4)
0.8085
(172.6)

Individual Misses for FT%

SPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 RJ Barrett 0.6409 0.7464 232.0
2 Isaac Okoro 0.7974 0.7261 183.3
3 Patrick Williams 0.7974 0.7280 163.5
4 Bam Adebayo 0.7128 0.7994 157.5
5 Keldon Johnson 0.8020 0.7398 148.1

ESPN

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Royce O'Neale 0.7576 0.8478 173.3
2 Jeff Green 0.8526 0.7764 163.5
3 Ja Morant 0.7933 0.7285 159.5
4 Joe Ingles 0.7466 0.8444 158.5
5 Terry Rozier 0.8657 0.8168 147.2